Ponzi Schemes Built on People Always Crash Too

Singaporeans are raring to do
something extraordinary: protest.

That might not seem like a big deal with the Arab Spring
uprisings; Chinese journalists taking to the streets; and
thousands of typically docile Japanese rallying against
government policies. But tropical Singapore is the land of quiet
brooding, where mass street demonstrations are as common as
snowstorms.

What has people so riled up? Well, people. The impetus for
the Feb. 16 march is a report that the tiny island’s population
may rise by as much as 30 percent to 6.9 million by 2030. This
seems to be the government’s answer to the question of how to
sustain prosperity in one of the most crowded and expensive
cities in the world.

The signs of overcrowding and urban stress are palpable to
any visitor. Prices are surging, public services in a nation
famed for nanny-state tendencies are slipping and some of the
finest infrastructure anywhere is bucking under the strain.
Locals blame the influx of immigrants, which Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s ruling party touts as one key to Singapore’s
success in the years to come.

The city-state, with about half the area of New York City,
has 3.3 million citizens and 2 million foreign residents, many
of whom have contributed greatly to Singapore’s growth in
finance and construction. Yet complaints that overseas workers
deprive locals of jobs and drive up housing prices fill the air.
Singapore is the third-most-expensive Asian city and ranks as
the sixth most costly in the world, according to an Economist
Intelligence Unit ranking of 131 cities.

Case Study

Singapore may well serve as a case study for what happens
when leaders try to offset slowing economic growth with
immigration and increased birth rates. There are lessons that
Japan or Italy would do well to study. All of it is turning into
a political liability for Lee, the son of Lee Kuan Yew, who is
regarded as the father of modern Singapore.

The erosion in his party’s popularity is accelerating after
the release Jan. 29 of a white paper that contained the 6.9
million figure, which it calls a projection, not a goal. Lee
Hsien Loong has since said the number of people will be
“significantly” lower than the report suggests. Will
Singaporeans buy that?

“The new population policy is anti-Singaporean and it
threatens our existence and livelihoods,” says Gilbert Goh, 51,
an advocate for unemployed citizens and an organizer of a
protest planned for this week.

Sadly, some of the rants one reads in the media and online
veer toward xenophobia. If Singaporeans are so livid, they
should stop supporting Lee’s party. After all, isn’t the
government, by seeking to import more human capital, telling its
own people that they lack the skills to compete? Anyone who
doubts Singapore is serious only has to look at accelerating
efforts to reclaim land from the sea for development, giving the
city the room for population growth.

The real question, as public angst rises, is whether the
opposition is justified. Former United Nations demographer
Joseph Chamie says it is. To Chamie, the view that it’s almost
always better to have more and more people is the human
equivalent of what Bernard Madoff did with money, something he
calls “Ponzi demography.”

The human-pyramid scheme works like this: Population
growth, either through births or immigration, boosts demand for
goods and services, increases borrowing, boosts tax revenue and
adds to corporate profits. Everything seems grand and leaders
take a bow. It’s a bubble, though, and it eventually bursts when
population growth stalls. Incomes top out, high debt crushes
consumption and investment, the need for public assistance
rises, environmental degradation increases and angry people take
to the streets.

Public Pays

As households are left to pick up the tab once Ponzi
demography runs its course, government leaders issue dire
warnings about economic decline if the flow of fresh talent
stops. This will sound familiar to Singaporeans as Lee’s
People’s Action Party sketches out a dystopian future without
adding wealthy bankers and low-income workers to the nation’s
ranks.

Singapore needs to find another way. The era of easy growth
is over. Just as economies such as Japan and South Korea are
seeing the limits of their export-led models, Singapore’s
formula has run its course. Raising the productivity of its
current workforce would be more potent for a developed, open
economy looking to compete in a region dominated by the cheap
labor and manufacturing of China and India. Singapore should
focus as much energy on incentives for its existing residents to
innovate and start new businesses as on adding more bodies.

Not only is Singapore toying with liberalized immigration,
it’s also revving up a campaign to persuade Singaporeans to wed
younger and reproduce. It is an odd push for Lee. Four decades
ago, concern about overpopulation prompted his father to urge a
delay in nuptials and to have smaller families. Today, amid a
birthrate of about 1.3 children per woman, efforts to encourage
bigger families border on the offensive. Just check a new
website, “Hey Baby.”

Singapore’s addiction to population growth sends a simple
and disconcerting message: The country has run out of ideas to
increase economic vitality, aside from encouraging people to
procreate or immigrate. Ponzi demography, indeed.

(William Pesek is a Bloomberg View columnist. The opinions
expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this article:
William Pesek in Singapore at
wpesek@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this article:
James Greiff at jgreiff@bloomberg.net

Ponzi Schemes Built on People Always Crash Too

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Europe solo debut for Singapore artist

Visitors at annual art fair Art Stage Singapore last month did a double-take when they encountered work by homegrown artist Donna Ong. It was not just her installation that gave pause, but also the fact that it featured in a display by an Italian gallery.

Primo Marella, a Milan-based gallery, has been presenting art from South-east Asia since 2007 and now has its sights on Singaporean artists, whose work can fetch anywhere between €5,000 and €35,000 (S$8,390 and S$58,742) in Italy.

And so, at Art Stage Singapore, its owner, Mr Primo Marella, did not pick any big names from the West, opting to use his booth to showcase Ong’s work.

Now, he is featuring the work of another Singapore artist, 22-year-old painter Ruben Pang, in a solo show at Lugano in Switzerland.

The choice of Europe for Pang’s international solo debut comes amid buzz already building there for the artist. He made his international debut last November in a group show in Milan, Italy, put on by Primo Marella gallery and called Deep S.E.A – Contemporary Art From South East Asia. Three of Pang’s paintings sold even before the exhibition opened.

In an e-mail interview with Life!, Mr Marella says Italian demand for both Ong and Pang’s art is fuelled by the artists’ “contemporary style” and “captivating artworks”.

Both artists were part of the gallery’s November group show. The exhibition was two years in the making and presented 50 artworks by 11 artists from eight South-east Asian countries.

Despite the presence of regional heavyweights such as Filipino Ronald Ventura and Indonesian artist Entang Wiharso, both Ong and Pang made their mark with their installations and paintings, getting attention from critics and collectors.

Mr Marella notes that the artists have a distinct style which is not bound by geography. Their “global narrative” works well as the gallery goes all out to “introduce their works to new audiences”, as he puts it.

Pang’s solo show consists of three sculptures – the first time he has exhibited the genre – together with nine new paintings.

He describes the paintings as “an attempt to bring a saturated light/digital visual effects/dream sequences/glitches into oil paint”.

He reworked the show’s anchor work, titled Impossible, many times, adding layer after layer. “The composition was only finalised in December though I started work on it in May,” he says. “Impossible was just a working title I used because it was the hardest painting to resolve, but it stuck.”

He calls his European outing “an amazing experience”, one that allows him to introduce his abstract paintings – made using oil on aluminium instead of canvas, and with his hands rather than brushes – to new audiences.

Gallery manager Elena Micheletti, 37, claims that Primo is the first gallery in Italy to focus on contemporary art from South-east Asia. The focus arose after Mr Marella travelled extensively in 2007 across South-east Asia, visiting Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore and parts of Indochina.

Last year, he saw Pang’s work during a visit to the Singapore Art Museum’s contemporary wing, 8Q, and followed this up by calling at the artist’s home studio, where he was taken with “his meticulous, scientist-like approach to art, including the use of alumnium instead of a canvas”.

His gallery was among the first Italian ones to open a venue in the 798 Art District in Beijing but as Ms Micheletti notes: “We started by exploring Chinese art in the late 1990s, when the art world was obsessively West-centric. Now everybody is talking about China and we have shifted our surveys and focus to South-east Asia.

“From both an economic and cultural point of view, today South-east Asia is among the most promising regions in terms of the diversity of art you can find there.”

deepikas@sph.com.sg

Ruben Pang’s solo show, Aetheric Portraiture, is now on at Primo Marella’s gallery Primae Noctis in Lugano, Switzerland.

Get a copy of The Straits Times or go to straitstimes.com for more stories.

Europe solo debut for Singapore artist

Younis, Shafiq hit centuries as Pakistan fight back

Centuries by Younis Khan and Asad Shafiq transformed Pakistan’s fortunes on the first day of the second Test against South Africa at Newlands on Thursday.

Pakistan were 253 for five at stumps, having been reeling at 33 for four after being sent in.

Younis was caught behind off Vernon Philander 13 balls before the close for 111, while Shafiq was unbeaten, also on 111.

The pair put on 219, a record partnership for any wicket by Pakistan against South Africa.

It was a remarkable turnaround after the South African fast bowlers scythed through their top order early in the day.

Pakistan seemed in danger of another humiliation following their dismissal for a record low of 49 on the way to a 211-run defeat in the first Test in Johannesburg.

“After the first Test match we had a lot of meetings and chats about how we play Test cricket,” said Younis.

“It was tough again this morning but everyone knows that if you have a good partnership you have a good chance to come back.

“It is all about the partnership and how you motivate yourself again and again and fight for your country.”

Graeme Smith’s decision to bowl was prompted by cloudy weather, which followed early morning rain.

It seemed fully justified as Morne Morkel took two wickets and Philander and Dale Steyn claimed one each, with none of the batsmen looking comfortable.

Younis, Pakistan’s most experienced batsman, had to survive some challenging deliveries from Steyn at the start of his innings, and admitted: “I was lucky, I played a few balls and missed.”

Shafiq followed a fighting half-century in the second innings in Johannesburg with an innings which grew in quality the longer it progressed.

“Asad Shafiq is improving every day, he has a good future for Pakistan,” added Younis, who also said he had encouraged the younger player by advising him to play his natural game.

“My theory is very simple. If there is a ball (to hit), go for it.”

It was slow going at times, with Younis and Shafiq adding only 14 runs in the first 13 overs after lunch.

The 50 partnership was posted off 151 balls, but their second 50 was scored off 88 deliveries and the pair scored freely in the afternoon before the second new ball was due.

Younis reached his 21st Test century — and his fourth against South Africa — after facing 192 balls and hitting six fours and three sixes, all of the sixes coming off left-arm spinner Robin Peterson.

The stocky Shafiq followed in the last over with the old ball, notching his third Test hundred off 201 balls with 13 fours and a six.

Steyn appeared to have made a breakthrough with his third delivery with the new ball when Younis, on 105, was adjudged leg before wicket by umpire Steve Davis.

But the batsman immediately called for a review which showed that the ball flicked the inside edge of his bat before crashing into his front pad.

Younis then fell victim to a successful review by South Africa after being given not out by umpire Bruce Oxenford. Replays showed he had been caught behind off an inside edge and his thigh pad.

Philander said he felt that South Africa had bowled well.

“The wicket is pretty good,” he said.

“We knocked over four quite quickly, then Younis and Shafiq played very well. Overall it was a good bowling performance.”

The Younis-Shafiq stand lasted for 439 balls and gave Pakistan heart after a poor start.

Opening batsmen Mohammad Hafeez and Nasir Jamshed started cautiously, scoring just ten runs before the left-handed Jamshed was caught behind off Philander for three.

He had survived a chance to Faf du Plessis at gully off the previous delivery.

Hafeez edged Steyn to first slip after making 17 before the tall Morkel took two wickets in an over, having Azhar Ali caught behind attempting an extravagant drive before Pakistan captain Misbah-ul-Haq was caught at short leg off a sharply rising delivery.

Younis, Shafiq hit centuries as Pakistan fight back